Predicting model of mild and severe types of COVID-19 patients using Thymus CT radiomics model: A preliminary study.

OBJECTIVE: To predict COVID-19 severity by building a prediction model based on the clinical manifestations and radiomic features of the thymus in COVID-19 patients. METHOD: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical and radiological data from 217 confirmed cases of COVID-19 admitted to Xiangyang NO.1 People's Hospital and Jiangsu Hospital of Chinese Medicine from December 2019 to April 2022 (including 118 mild cases and 99 severe cases). The data were split into the training and test sets at a 7:3 ratio. The cases in the training set were compared in terms of clinical data and radiomic parameters of the lasso regression model. Several models for severity prediction were established based on the clinical and radiomic features of the COVID-19 patients. The DeLong test and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the performances of several models. Finally, the prediction results were verified on the test set. RESULT: For the training set, the univariate analysis showed that BMI, diarrhea, thymic steatosis, anorexia, headache, findings on the chest CT scan, platelets, LDH, AST and radiomic features of the thymus were significantly different between the two groups of patients (P < 0.05). The combination model based on the clinical and radiomic features of COVID-19 patients had the highest predictive value for COVID-19 severity [AUC: 0.967 (OR 0.0115, 95%CI: 0.925-0.989)] vs. the clinical feature-based model [AUC: 0.772 (OR 0.0387, 95%CI: 0.697-0.836), P < 0.05], laboratory-based model [AUC: 0.687 (OR 0.0423, 95%CI: 0.608-0.760), P < 0.05] and model based on CT radiomics [AUC: 0.895 (OR 0.0261, 95%CI: 0.835-0.938), P < 0.05]. DCA also confirmed the high clinical net benefits of the combination model. The nomogram drawn based on the combination model could help differentiate between the mild and severe cases of COVID-19 at an early stage. The predictions from different models were verified on the test set. CONCLUSION: Severe cases of COVID-19 had a higher level of thymic involution. The thymic differentiation in radiomic features was related to disease progression. The combination model based on the radiomic features of the thymus could better promote early clinical intervention of COVID-19 and increase the cure rate.

An Evolutionary Game Model of the Supply Decisions between GNPOs and Hospitals during a Public Health Emergency

The distribution of medical supplies tied to the government-owned nonprofit organizations (GNPOs) is crucial to the sustainable and high-quality development of emergency response to public health emergencies. This paper constructs a two-sided GNPO–hospital game model in a Chinese context, and explores the strategies and influencing factors of medical supply distribution in public health emergencies based on evolutionary game theory. The results show that: (1) GNPOs, as the distributor of medical supplies, should choose strategies that balance efficiency and equity as much as possible. (2) Hospitals, as the recipient of medical supplies, should actively choose strategies that maximize the total benefit to society and strengthen trust in GNPOs. Meanwhile, hospital managers need to pay attention to reducing the impact of communication and coordination costs and strive for the reduction of conflicts between different values. (3) The government should strengthen supervision to avoid conflicts between medical distributors and receivers during a public health emergency and ensure the rescue efficiency. This study provides some reference for the sustainable development of emergency relief in public health emergencies.

Prediction and follow-up of risk factors for severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and application of CT visual scoring.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia infection is associated with high rates of hospitalization and mortality and this has placed healthcare systems under strain. Our study provides a novel method for the progress prediction, clinical treatment and prognosis of NCP, and has important clinical value for timely treatment of severe NCP patients. OBJECTIVE: To summarize the clinical features and severe illness risk factors of the patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP), in order to provide support for the progression prediction, clinical treatment and prognosis of NCP patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 196 NCP patients treated in our hospital from January 25, 2020 to June 21, 2020 were divided into the severe group and the mild group. The clinical features of the two groups were analyzed and compared. The risk factors were explored by using multivariate logistic regression, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained. The correlations of the risk factors with the prognosis of NCP were investigated combined with the lung function test. RESULTS: The primary clinical symptoms of 196 cases of NCP included fever in 167 cases (85.2%) and cough in 121 cases (61.73%). The chest computed tomography (CT) scans of the 178 cases (90.81%) showed a typical ground-glass opacification. In 149 cases, the lymphocyte count was decreased, while the levels of creatine kinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), c-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and D-dimer (D-D) increased. 44 cases (22.45%) were found to be severely ill. The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, underlying disease, length of hospital stay, body mass index (BMI), LDH, chest CT visual score, absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) and CRP were risk factors for severe.